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Prediction for CME (2025-11-09T07:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-09T07:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42546/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Halo CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-11-09T07:24Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and in the NE by STEREO A COR2 in later frames. The source of this event is an X1.7 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27E03) which peaked at 2025-11-09T07:35Z seen in GOES SUVI 131. Dimming and field line movement associated with this flare seen in GOES SUVI 171, 193 and 284 appears to have a Northwestern trajectory, suggesting the possibility of deflection. This CME has appears to have a very asymmetric morphology from the perspective of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. There does not appear to be a shock feature associated with this event.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-11T22:11Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-11T20:02Z (-7.42h, +7.42h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:

CME input parameters:
Apex direction (deg): 2.0
Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7
Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 45.0

initial CME speed: 734.0 (+/- 50) km/s
initial height: 21.5 R_sun
initial time: 2025-11-09T12:12Z
drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km 
ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s
time step: 10 min
ensemble members: 50k

Lead Time: 50.77 hour(s)
Difference: 2.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2025-11-09T19:25Z

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